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Solution Page: 2024 Election (Under Construction)


This is the third Directed Fiction novel ever written.


Prediction Map 29 January 2024


Table Updated 29 January 2024

Landmark

Community Forecast

Merritt's Forecast

Merritt's Score

Baseline / Peer

Initial Problem Set:

US Presidential Winner?

Joe Biden: 49%

Donald Trump: 49%

Donald Trump: 99%

Pending

1a. % Hispanics Vote Republican

42%

51%

Pending

1b. Independent Party gets 5%?

23%

50%

Pending

1c. Biden Alters Migrant Policy?

7.7%

​4.1%

Pending

2a. Republican Nominee

Donald Trump: 97%

Donald Trump: 99.9%

Pending

2b. Trump Blocked from Primary?

15%

5%

Pending

2c. Biden Declines to Run?

80%

95%

Pending

2d. Democratic Nominee

Joe Biden: 95%

Kamala Harris: 2%

Gavin Newsom: 1.5% Michelle Obama 0.2%

Joe Biden: 65%

Kamala Harris: 5%

Gavin Newsom: 10% Michelle Obama 10%

Pending

3a.1 Republicans use False Electors

15%

5%

Pending

3a.2 Biden Impeached

24%

40%


3b.1 Democratics Use Lawfare

55%

65%

Pending

3b.2 Need Category

N/A

N/A


4a Miraculous Endstate (R)


If Yes: 50%

If No: 30%

If Yes: 75%

If No: 25%

Pending

4b. Catastrophic Endstate (D)

Nov 9, 2068

Nov 9, 2030

Pending

4c. Optimistic Endstate (R)

46%


Pending

4d. Pessimistic Endstate (R)

269 Electoral Votes

315 Electoral Votes

Pending

4e. Surprise-Free (R)

10%

15%

Pending

4f. Suprise-Free (D)

20%

15%

Pending

4g. Optimistic Endstate (D)

50%

10%

Pending

4h. Pessimistic Endstate (D)

273 Electoral Votes

223 Electoral Votes

Pending

4i. Miraculous Endstate (D)


If Yes: 50%

If No: 30%

If Yes: 75%

If No: 25%

Pending

4j. Catastrophic Endstate (R)

Nov 9, 2068

Nov 9, 2030

Pending

​TOTALS

These Predictions are Updated in Real-Time


Initial Problem Set: US Presidential Winner?

When I


1a. Percentage of Hispanics Vote Republican

When I


1b. Independent Party gets 5%?

When I


1c. Biden Doesn't Complete Term

When I


2a. Republican Nominee

This


2b. Trump Blocked from Primary?

There



2c. Biden Declines to Run?

This


2d. Democratic Nominee

The



3a. Republican Fraud

The



3b. Democratic Fraud

The




4a. Miraculous Endstate (R) &

4b. Catastrophic Endstate (D)

I consider


4c. Optimistic Endstate (R)

This question


4d. Pessimistic Endstate (R)

If I have


4e. Surprise-Free (R)

In a previous


4f. Suprise-Free (D)

This is


4g. Optimistic Endstate (D)

The



4h. Pessimistic Endstate (D)

Perhaps it


4i. Miraculous Endstate (D) &

4j. Catastrophic Endstate (R)

In his book


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