This is the third Directed Fiction novel ever written.
Prediction Map 19 July 2024
Table Updated 19 July 2024
Landmark | Community Forecast | Merritt's Forecast | Merritt's Score Baseline / Peer |
Initial Problem Set: US Presidential Winner? | Joe Biden: 15% Donald Trump: 75% | Joe Biden: .1% Donald Trump: 99.9% Kamala Haris: 34% | Pending |
1a. % Hispanics Vote Republican | 42.7% | 51.3% | Pending |
1b. Independent Party gets 5%? | 20% | 40% | Pending |
1c. Biden Alters Migrant Policy? | 6.6% | ​2.8% | Pending |
2a. Republican Nominee | Donald Trump: 99% | Donald Trump: 99.9% | Pending |
2b. Trump Blocked from Primary? | 1% | .1% | Pending |
2c. Biden Declines to Run? | 82% | 99.9% | Pending |
2d. Democratic Nominee | Joe Biden: 23% Kamala Harris: 70% Gavin Newsom: 4% Michelle Obama 1% | Joe Biden: .1% Kamala Harris: 90% Gavin Newsom: 20% Michelle Obama 5% | Pending |
3a.1 Republicans use False Electors | 9.6% | .1% | Pending |
3a.2 Biden Impeached | 1% | .1% | Pending |
3b.1 Democratics Use Lawfare | 76% | 99% | My Baseline: +13 My Peer: +12 |
3b.2 Mail-in Votes by Party | Democrats: 53% Republicans: 30.5% | Democrats: 55.5% Republicans: 41.5% | Pending |
4a.1 Miraculous Endstate (R) Democrats Extinct | 2067 | 2025 | Pending |
4a.2 Catastrophic Endstate (D) Civil Unrest | 55% | 75% | Pending |
4b.1 Optimistic Endstate (R Wins) DEM Concedes | 80% | 99.9% | Pending |
4b.2 Pessimistic Endstate (R) DEM Faithless Electors | 18% | 15% | Pending |
4c.1 Surprise-Free (R) Supreme Court Decides | 5% | 1% | Pending |
4c.2 Suprise-Free (D) Election Fraudulent | 50% | 75% | Pending |
4d.1 Optimistic Endstate (D) Any Democrat Wins | 37% | 9% | Pending |
4d.2 Pessimistic Endstate (D) Faithless Electors | 249 Electoral Votes | 200 Electoral Votes | Pending |
4e.1. Catastrophic Endstate (R) Cease to exist | 2067 | 2025 | Pending |
4e.2 Miraculous Endstate (D)Civil Unrest | 55% | 75% | Pending |
​TOTALS | ​ | ​ | ​ |
These Predictions are Updated in Real-Time
Initial Problem Set: US Presidential Winner?
This chart has experienced a massive change since last month, with Joe Biden losing 40 points and Donald Trump gaining 10 points. This was updated right after the assassination attempt.
1a. Percentage of Hispanics Vote Republican
There has been very little movement on this chart which is a surprise to me based on the reports I'm reading. It sounds like more and more Hispanics are turning toward Trump. I'm estimating 51%.
1b. Independent Party gets 5%?
This is another chart that seems low based on the reports. I've read that JFK Jr. is approaching 10% of the votes. I'm saying there's a 40% chance this happens.
1c. Will Biden Alter Migrant Policy?
This looks highly unlikely.
2a. Republican Nominee
I started high with this bid at 80%. Now I am maxed out at 99.9%. Looks like the rest of the crowd is catching up with me.
2b. Trump Blocked from Primary?
This question is currently closed for resolution. I'm in good position to score some at .1% chance (the lowest allowed). Scores will follow shortly.
2c. Biden Declines to Run?
This is a trick question because the time horizon is pushed way out to 2080. However, I am very confident that President Biden will ultimately decline to run for re-election. I'm all in at 99.9% that the nominee will be someone else.
2d. Democratic Nominee
Look at these numbers! Biden and Harris' trends are set to reverse soon! This began after the debate.
3a. Republican Fraud
This outcome was a hot topic during the 2020 elections. However, it's been made pretty clear by court precedent that this type of election strategy will be a non-starter. I'm at the minimum probability of .1%.
3b. Democratic Fraud
Results are starting to come in!
My Baseline score for this question is +13. That's not a lot, but at least I'm on the positive side. It means I called it right.
My Peer score is +12. That means other forecasters with my same level of experience averaged about the same.
4a.1. Miraculous Endstate (R)
This is a longshot scenario. But people seem to believe that it is inevitable, given enough time. I think there may be a dangerous time for the Democratic party if they have overplayed their hand.
4a.2. Catastrophic Endstate (D)
I consider the odds of political violence in the wake of the election to be very high. It will be especially dangerous if the election is considered fraudulent.
4b.1. Optimistic Endstate (R)
The odds of this happening have risen dramatically in the last few weeks. It's a fast mover that both Republicans and Democrats are paying attention to.
4b.2. Pessimistic Endstate (R)
This was a big issue in 2020. But I think it's basically a non-starter now.
4c.1. Surprise-Free (R)
I think the majority of forecasters viewed this question as a referring to the probability that Trump would be kept off the ballot. Since that didn't happen, the scores are very low. I've bid 1% on this one. However, there might be other disputes that crop up as we get nearer the election... However, this chart is helping me to believe that the chances of election fraud are lower this year.
4c.2. Suprise-Free (D)
This is a critical question. I've bid high on this one (65%) because I believe there will be some level of fraud. This contradicts my answer on 4c.1 (above). To parse this, I think: 1) There will be fraud, and 2) This year it will not be enough to sway the election. A positive resolution to this question may trigger political violence. Let's pray that it does not.
4d.1. Optimistic Endstate (D)
This question is beginning to drop off rapidly following Trump's nomination.
4d.2. Pessimistic Endstate (D)
The Democrats need 270 Electoral votes to win. Right now, they don't have it, and the numbers are slowly dropping.
4e.1. Miraculous Endstate (D)
This is a longshot scenario. But people seem to believe that it is inevitable, given enough time. I think there may be a dangerous time for the Republican party if they render themselves irrelevant to their voter base.
4e.2 Catastrophic Endstate (R)
I consider the odds of political violence in the wake of the election to be very high. It will be especially dangerous if the election is considered fraudulent.