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Solution Page: 2024 Election (Under Construction)


This is the third Directed Fiction novel ever written.


Prediction Map 29 January 2024


Table Updated 31 March 2024

Landmark

Community Forecast

Merritt's Forecast

Merritt's Score

Baseline / Peer

Initial Problem Set:

US Presidential Winner?

Joe Biden: 50%

Donald Trump: 49%

Joe Biden: 5% Donald Trump: 99% Kamala Haris: 4%

Pending

1a. % Hispanics Vote Republican

42.7%

51.3%

Pending

1b. Independent Party gets 5%?

20%

40%

Pending

1c. Biden Alters Migrant Policy?

5.8%

​2.7%

Pending

2a. Republican Nominee

Donald Trump: 99%

Donald Trump: 99.9%

Pending

2b. Trump Blocked from Primary?

2%

.1%

Pending

2c. Biden Declines to Run?

80%

95%

Pending

2d. Democratic Nominee

Joe Biden: 95%

Kamala Harris: 3%

Gavin Newsom: 1% Michelle Obama 0.5%

Joe Biden: 50%

Kamala Harris: 50%

Gavin Newsom: 10% Michelle Obama 5%

Pending

3a.1 Republicans use False Electors

10%

2%

Pending

3a.2 Biden Impeached

15%

5%

Pending

3b.1 Democratics Use Lawfare

75%

90%

Pending

3b.2 Mail-in Votes by Party

Democrats: 53%

Republicans: 30.5%

Democrats: 55.5%

Republicans: 45.2%

Pending

4a.1 Miraculous Endstate (R) Civil Unrest

55%

75%

Pending

4a.2 Catastrophic Endstate (D) Faithless Electors

2063

2030

Pending

4b.1 Optimistic Endstate (R Wins) DEM Concedes

52%

90%

Pending

4b.2 Pessimistic Endstate (R) DEM Faithless Electors

20%

15%

Pending

4c.1 Surprise-Free (R) Supreme Court Decides

7%

10%

Pending

4c.2 Suprise-Free (D) Election Fraudulent

55%

65%

Pending

4d.1 Optimistic Endstate (D) REP Concedes

49%

10%

Pending

4d.2 Pessimistic Endstate (D) Faithless Electors

273 Electoral Votes

223 Electoral Votes

Pending

4e.1. Catastrophic Endstate (R) Cease to exist

2063

2030

Pending

4e.2 Miraculous Endstate (D)Civil Unrest


55%

75%

Pending

​TOTALS

These Predictions are Updated in Real-Time


Initial Problem Set: US Presidential Winner?

When I


1a. Percentage of Hispanics Vote Republican

When I


1b. Independent Party gets 5%?

When I


1c. Biden Doesn't Complete Term

When I


2a. Republican Nominee

This


2b. Trump Blocked from Primary?

There



2c. Biden Declines to Run?

This


2d. Democratic Nominee

The



3a. Republican Fraud

The



3b. Democratic Fraud

The




4a. Miraculous Endstate (R) &

4b. Catastrophic Endstate (D)

I consider


4c. Optimistic Endstate (R)

This question


4d. Pessimistic Endstate (R)

If I have


4e. Surprise-Free (R)

In a previous


4f. Suprise-Free (D)

This is


4g. Optimistic Endstate (D)

The



4h. Pessimistic Endstate (D)

Perhaps it


4i. Miraculous Endstate (D) &

4j. Catastrophic Endstate (R)

In his book


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