This is the third Directed Fiction novel ever written.
Prediction Map 29 January 2024
Table Updated 31 March 2024
Landmark | Community Forecast | Merritt's Forecast | Merritt's Score Baseline / Peer |
Initial Problem Set: US Presidential Winner? | Joe Biden: 50% Donald Trump: 49% | Joe Biden: 5% Donald Trump: 99% Kamala Haris: 4% | Pending |
1a. % Hispanics Vote Republican | 42.7% | 51.3% | Pending |
1b. Independent Party gets 5%? | 20% | 40% | Pending |
1c. Biden Alters Migrant Policy? | 5.8% | ​2.7% | Pending |
2a. Republican Nominee | Donald Trump: 99% | Donald Trump: 99.9% | Pending |
2b. Trump Blocked from Primary? | 2% | .1% | Pending |
2c. Biden Declines to Run? | 80% | 95% | Pending |
2d. Democratic Nominee | Joe Biden: 95% Kamala Harris: 3% Gavin Newsom: 1% Michelle Obama 0.5% | Joe Biden: 50% Kamala Harris: 50% Gavin Newsom: 10% Michelle Obama 5% | Pending |
3a.1 Republicans use False Electors | 10% | 2% | Pending |
3a.2 Biden Impeached | 15% | 5% | Pending |
3b.1 Democratics Use Lawfare | 75% | 90% | Pending |
3b.2 Mail-in Votes by Party | Democrats: 53% Republicans: 30.5% | Democrats: 55.5% Republicans: 45.2% | Pending |
4a.1 Miraculous Endstate (R) Civil Unrest | 55% | 75% | Pending |
4a.2 Catastrophic Endstate (D) Faithless Electors | 2063 | 2030 | Pending |
4b.1 Optimistic Endstate (R Wins) DEM Concedes | 52% | 90% | Pending |
4b.2 Pessimistic Endstate (R) DEM Faithless Electors | 20% | 15% | Pending |
4c.1 Surprise-Free (R) Supreme Court Decides | 7% | 10% | Pending |
4c.2 Suprise-Free (D) Election Fraudulent | 55% | 65% | Pending |
4d.1 Optimistic Endstate (D) REP Concedes | 49% | 10% | Pending |
4d.2 Pessimistic Endstate (D) Faithless Electors | 273 Electoral Votes | 223 Electoral Votes | Pending |
4e.1. Catastrophic Endstate (R) Cease to exist | 2063 | 2030 | Pending |
4e.2 Miraculous Endstate (D)Civil Unrest | 55% | 75% | Pending |
​TOTALS | ​ | ​ | ​ |
These Predictions are Updated in Real-Time
Initial Problem Set: US Presidential Winner?
When I
1a. Percentage of Hispanics Vote Republican
When I
1b. Independent Party gets 5%?
When I
1c. Biden Doesn't Complete Term
When I
2a. Republican Nominee
This
2b. Trump Blocked from Primary?
There
2c. Biden Declines to Run?
This
2d. Democratic Nominee
The
3a. Republican Fraud
The
3b. Democratic Fraud
The
4a. Miraculous Endstate (R) &
4b. Catastrophic Endstate (D)
I consider
4c. Optimistic Endstate (R)
This question
4d. Pessimistic Endstate (R)
If I have
4e. Surprise-Free (R)
In a previous
4f. Suprise-Free (D)
This is
4g. Optimistic Endstate (D)
The
4h. Pessimistic Endstate (D)
Perhaps it
4i. Miraculous Endstate (D) &
4j. Catastrophic Endstate (R)
In his book